Luckycoin Pool Share Shift
how it’s computed →
Each day’s share is that pool’s blocks divided by all LKY blocks found that UTC day, the pool read from the Litecoin coinbase inside each AuxPoW header. Only complete days are drawn — today never is.
The six pools with the largest trailing share are drawn; everything else is counted as other. The headline score is z = (s − s̄) / √(s̄(1−s̄)/N) against the trailing seven full days: |z| ≥ 4 is an event, pools under 2% of trailing share are not scored, and days with fewer than 50 blocks are skipped.
s_p(d) = blocks found by pool p on UTC day d / all blocks that day; baseline = the pool's share over the trailing 7 full days; z = (s_p(d) - baseline) / sqrt(baseline*(1-baseline)/N_d) (binomial, N_d = blocks that day); event = |z| >= 4; pools below 2% trailing share are not scored
What a pool share shift is
Pool share shift is the one-day change in a mining pool’s share of Luckycoin blocks, measured against that pool’s own trailing week and scored in standard deviations of block luck. On Luckycoin the pool behind a block is read from the Litecoin coinbase embedded in its AuxPoW header — LKY is merge-mined under Litecoin parent pools, so a shift here is a shift in whose parent work carried LKY that day, not a decision any LKY-side miner made. In our dated attribution study (2026-10-02 → 2026-10-10), F2Pool 47.2%, AntPool 30.2% and Kupool 10.9% of LKY blocks carried those tags. Pool carriage is unusually broad for the chain’s size — Dogecoin’s direct ancestor gets seats smaller coins don’t.
How much is luck on Luckycoin
Luckycoin targets a block every 60 seconds — about 1,440 a day — so a pool holding 47.2% of the chain — F2Pool, in our dated attribution study (2026-10-02 → 2026-10-10) — expects to wobble about ±1.3 percentage points on an ordinary day from luck alone. The event line is drawn at four of those standard deviations, from that arithmetic and nothing else; a day that reads 2σ is weather, not news. Retarget cadence is irrelevant here (Luckycoin difficulty retargets every 20 blocks (~20 minutes at the 60-second target) — measured on our own node: 53,808 changes since genesis, every one on a multiple of 20, 2026-10-16): difficulty decides how many blocks a day there are, not who finds them.
FAQ
- Is a 2σ move on Luckycoin an event?
- No. With about 1,440 LKY blocks a day, a pool holding 47.2% of the chain wobbles about ±1.3 percentage points from luck alone. The line is drawn at 4σ so that pure luck produces fewer than one false event per pool per century of days.
- Does this say who mines Luckycoin?
- It names who found the Litecoin parent block. Luckycoin is merge-mined under Litecoin parent pools, and some parent pools do not pay LKY to their miners — the note at the top of this page says so. A shift here is a shift in whose parent work carried LKY that day.
- Why share of blocks and not hashrate per pool?
- Pool hashrate is not on-chain; block counts are. A pool’s share of the day’s blocks times the network hashrate is an estimate with its own luck error bar, so we score the share itself — the quantity our Luckycoin node can actually count.