CraftCoin Pool Share Shift
how it’s computed →
Each day’s share is that pool’s blocks divided by all CRC blocks found that UTC day, the pool read from the Litecoin coinbase inside each AuxPoW header. Only complete days are drawn — today never is.
The six pools with the largest trailing share are drawn; everything else is counted as other. The headline score is z = (s − s̄) / √(s̄(1−s̄)/N) against the trailing seven full days: |z| ≥ 4 is an event, pools under 2% of trailing share are not scored, and days with fewer than 50 blocks are skipped.
s_p(d) = blocks found by pool p on UTC day d / all blocks that day; baseline = the pool's share over the trailing 7 full days; z = (s_p(d) - baseline) / sqrt(baseline*(1-baseline)/N_d) (binomial, N_d = blocks that day); event = |z| >= 4; pools below 2% trailing share are not scored
What a pool share shift is
Pool share shift is the one-day change in a mining pool’s share of CraftCoin blocks, measured against that pool’s own trailing week and scored in standard deviations of block luck. On CraftCoin the pool behind a block is read from the Litecoin coinbase embedded in its AuxPoW header — CRC is merge-mined under Litecoin parent pools, so a shift here is a shift in whose parent work carried CRC that day, not a decision any CRC-side miner made. In our dated attribution study (2026-10-02 → 2026-10-10), F2Pool 84.7%, Litecoinpool 9.7% and Mining-Dutch 2.5% of CRC blocks carried those tags. Our archive also catches CRC blocks under LitecoinPool.org, Mining-Dutch and Binance Pool parent tags — AntPool stopped mining CRC on 2026-07-10 (its own dated notice), and the 17 AntPool-tagged CRC blocks we hold all date from January to December 2025 — so check those pools’ payout pages before counting on a CRC kicker.
How much is luck on CraftCoin
CraftCoin targets a block every 60 seconds — about 1,440 a day — so a pool holding 84.7% of the chain — F2Pool, in our dated attribution study (2026-10-02 → 2026-10-10) — expects to wobble about ±0.9 percentage points on an ordinary day from luck alone. The event line is drawn at four of those standard deviations, from that arithmetic and nothing else; a day that reads 2σ is weather, not news. Retarget cadence is irrelevant here (CraftCoin difficulty retargets every 1,440 blocks (~24 hours at the 60-second target) — measured on our own node: 742 changes since genesis, every one on a multiple of 1,440, 2026-10-16): difficulty decides how many blocks a day there are, not who finds them.
FAQ
- Is a 2σ move on CraftCoin an event?
- No. With about 1,440 CRC blocks a day, a pool holding 84.7% of the chain wobbles about ±0.9 percentage points from luck alone. The line is drawn at 4σ so that pure luck produces fewer than one false event per pool per century of days.
- Does this say who mines CraftCoin?
- It names who found the Litecoin parent block. CraftCoin is merge-mined under Litecoin parent pools, and some parent pools do not pay CRC to their miners — the note at the top of this page says so. A shift here is a shift in whose parent work carried CRC that day.
- Why share of blocks and not hashrate per pool?
- Pool hashrate is not on-chain; block counts are. A pool’s share of the day’s blocks times the network hashrate is an estimate with its own luck error bar, so we score the share itself — the quantity our CraftCoin node can actually count.