Dogecoin Pool Share Shift
how it’s computed →
Each day’s share is that pool’s blocks divided by all DOGE blocks found that UTC day, the pool read from the Litecoin coinbase inside each AuxPoW header. Only complete days are drawn — today never is.
The six pools with the largest trailing share are drawn; everything else is counted as other. The headline score is z = (s − s̄) / √(s̄(1−s̄)/N) against the trailing seven full days: |z| ≥ 4 is an event, pools under 2% of trailing share are not scored, and days with fewer than 50 blocks are skipped.
s_p(d) = blocks found by pool p on UTC day d / all blocks that day; baseline = the pool's share over the trailing 7 full days; z = (s_p(d) - baseline) / sqrt(baseline*(1-baseline)/N_d) (binomial, N_d = blocks that day); event = |z| >= 4; pools below 2% trailing share are not scored
What a pool share shift is
Pool share shift is the one-day change in a mining pool’s share of Dogecoin blocks, measured against that pool’s own trailing week and scored in standard deviations of block luck. On Dogecoin the pool behind a block is read from the Litecoin coinbase embedded in its AuxPoW header — DOGE is merge-mined under Litecoin parent pools, so a shift here is a shift in whose parent work carried DOGE that day, not a decision any DOGE-side miner made.
How much is luck on Dogecoin
Dogecoin targets a block every 60 seconds — about 1,440 a day — so a pool holding 20% of the chain expects to wobble about ±1.1 percentage points on an ordinary day from luck alone. The event line is drawn at four of those standard deviations, from that arithmetic and nothing else; a day that reads 2σ is weather, not news. Retarget cadence is irrelevant here (Dogecoin retargets difficulty every block (DigiShield)): difficulty decides how many blocks a day there are, not who finds them.
FAQ
- Is a 2σ move on Dogecoin an event?
- No. With about 1,440 DOGE blocks a day, a pool holding 20% of the chain wobbles about ±1.1 percentage points from luck alone. The line is drawn at 4σ so that pure luck produces fewer than one false event per pool per century of days.
- Does this say who mines Dogecoin?
- It names who found the Litecoin parent block. Dogecoin is merge-mined under Litecoin parent pools, and some parent pools do not pay DOGE to their miners — the note at the top of this page says so. A shift here is a shift in whose parent work carried DOGE that day.
- Why share of blocks and not hashrate per pool?
- Pool hashrate is not on-chain; block counts are. A pool’s share of the day’s blocks times the network hashrate is an estimate with its own luck error bar, so we score the share itself — the quantity our Dogecoin node can actually count.