Bitcoin Puell Multiple
What does the Puell Multiple measure?
The Puell Multiple, created by on-chain analyst David Puell, asks one question: how much are miners earning today compared to their own yearly norm? It takes the US-dollar value of Bitcoin's daily coin issuance and divides it by the 365-day moving average of that same value. A reading of 1.0 means miner issuance revenue is exactly at its one-year average; 2.0 means double; 0.5 means half.
Because issuance in BTC terms is nearly constant between halvings, the multiple is effectively price versus its own yearly average, seen through the miner's wallet — which is why it has been used to spot the extremes where miner behaviour historically changes.
How it's calculated
daily_issuance_usd(t) = 144 blocks × subsidy(t) × BTC_price(t)
puell(t) = daily_issuance_usd(t) / MA365(daily_issuance_usd)
This page computes the series in your browser from Binance's full BTCUSDT daily close history — August 2017 onward, fetched in pages from the public data API. Issuance follows the protocol's actual subsidy schedule at each date — 12.5 BTC per block until the May 2020 halving, 6.25 BTC until April 2024, and 3.125 BTC since — at the target 144 blocks per day. The first 365 days feed the moving average, so the plotted multiple begins around August 2018 and now spans multiple cycles: the 2018 bear-market trough, the 2021 peak, and the 2022 trough. When BasinTwo's own pipeline value is available (computed against our full node data), the live number above uses it and is labelled accordingly.
Three honest caveats: transaction fees are excluded — canonical Puell is subsidy-only issuance, not total miner revenue; the price series starts in August 2017 when Binance listed BTCUSDT, so the 2013 and 2017 cycle extremes are not on this chart — the 0.5 / 4.0 zone levels come from that longer multi-cycle history; and exchange daily closes differ slightly from the on-chain-derived prices some charting sites use, so readings can diverge marginally from theirs.
Why it matters for miners
Miners are structural sellers: they receive newly issued coins and sell some to pay power bills. When the multiple runs above 4.0, miners are earning several times their yearly norm — historically a period of aggressive miner selling that has coincided with overheated market tops. When it falls below 0.5, issuance revenue is deeply depressed relative to the past year — historically the zone where inefficient miners capitulate (see Hash Ribbons) and where long-term accumulation phases have occurred.
FAQ
- Who created the Puell Multiple?
- On-chain analyst David Puell. The indicator compares the US-dollar value of Bitcoin's daily coin issuance to its own 365-day average, putting miner revenue in the context of its yearly norm.
- Why does the Puell Multiple use a 365-day average?
- A full-year baseline smooths out short-term price swings and seasonality, so the multiple measures whether miners are earning unusually much or unusually little relative to a whole year of their own history rather than last week's.
- Is a low Puell Multiple a buy signal?
- It is a context tool, not advice. Readings below 0.5 have historically coincided with accumulation phases and readings above 4.0 with overheated markets, but past patterns are no guarantee, and BasinTwo does not give financial advice.